October Surprise

October SurpriseThere are two theories about American presidential elections, only one of which is right. The first, and most widely publicized, is that presidential campaigns are down-to-the-wire horse races in which any last-minute development can dramatically alter the outcome, no matter how large a lead one candidate may have. This is the theory favored by journalists, pundits, flacks, pollsters, political activists, spooks, gumshoes, all talking heads named Ed or Kevin and the 20 percent of...